"If we have a sustained decrease in global oil production of around 10%, then it's very easy to see oil prices going to $200. Demand for oil is highly inelastic, meaning prices would likely need to double or triple to reduce consumption by 10%."
"I kind of see the path of the stock market being like that, Berezin said, comparing equities to a bouncing ball descending a staircase. It'll bounce up for a while, but ultimately it'll end up lower than where it started."
BCA Research indicates a 40% probability of a U.S. recession, warning that sustained 10% cuts in oil supply could drive crude prices to $200. Oil prices above $100 suggest commodity traders perceive greater risks than equity investors. Berezin favors Anthropic for 2026 IPOs but notes that a surge in listings often signals a sector peak. He describes the stock market's trajectory as a bouncing ball descending a staircase, predicting a decline despite temporary gains. He emphasizes the inelastic nature of oil demand and the potential for significant price increases with supply disruptions.
Read at news.bitcoin.com
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