"The war's costs are nonetheless mounting. More than $16 billion has been so far, 13 U.S. troops have been, and Iran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz has slowed shipping traffic to a trickle, creating a historic oil disruption that has sent global energy markets into turmoil."
"You can't get regime change from the air, and who is to replace them when there is no viable alternative."
"The new supreme leader is widely assessed as even more hardline than his father, though the full contours of his leadership remain difficult to read, in part because he has not appeared in public since the war began."
"For decades, he operated in the shadows of his father's office. U.S. diplomatic published by WikiLeaks in the late 2000s referred to him as 'the power behind the robes' and his father's 'principal gatekeeper.'"
Intelligence reports indicate the Iranian regime is stable and maintains public control, despite the war's escalating costs exceeding $16 billion. The conflict has severely disrupted oil supplies, with Middle Eastern oil exports dropping by 60%, marking a historic disruption. The Assembly of Experts appointed Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader, perceived as more hardline than his father. His leadership style is unclear due to his absence from public view since the war began, and he has been described as a capable leader operating in the shadows.
Read at The Cipher Brief
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