#uncertainty-analysis

[ follow ]
Psychology
fromSilicon Canals
22 hours ago

The people who always have a backup plan aren't pessimists. They grew up in environments where promises were unreliable, and redundancy became the only architecture that didn't collapse when someone changed their mind without warning. - Silicon Canals

Obsessive planners are often generous, driven by past experiences that teach them to prepare for uncertainties.
#insider-trading
US Elections
fromFortune
2 days ago

Prediction markets have sparked a golden age of insider trading-but the party may be coming to an end | Fortune

Insider trading in prediction markets has surged, raising concerns about unethical betting practices and lack of regulatory oversight.
US Elections
fromFortune
2 days ago

Prediction markets have sparked a golden age of insider trading-but the party may be coming to an end | Fortune

Insider trading in prediction markets has surged, raising concerns about unethical betting practices and lack of regulatory oversight.
fromSubstack
5 days ago

Q1 Market Whiplash, Millionaire Tax Strategies and Bitcoin Backed Mortgages - Episode 183

The sharp rise in oil prices and renewed inflation concerns created significant pressure on both stocks and bonds, impacting investor sentiment and market dynamics.
Retirement
Business intelligence
fromFortune
3 days ago

More people are using AI to manage their money- but they won't let it make decisions alone | Fortune

Employees embrace AI for productivity but prefer human decision-making authority.
Mindfulness
fromPsychology Today
4 days ago

How Financial Anxiety Clouds Your Brain

Financial worries impair cognitive functions, affecting decision-making and performance, rather than reducing inherent intelligence.
Business
from24/7 Wall St.
4 days ago

Extreme Fear is Gripping the Market, This Is the Smart Move Most Investors Miss

Investors are panicking, leading to extreme fear in the markets, with quality stocks like Apple and Microsoft also being sold off.
Cryptocurrency
fromBitcoin Magazine
5 days ago

Crypto Stocks Near A Bottom After 60% Selloff: Analyst

Crypto-linked equities are nearing a cyclical bottom after a 60% drawdown, presenting a potential buying opportunity ahead of earnings.
#decision-making
Philosophy
fromThe Atlantic
1 week ago

How to Make Better Decisions

Decision-making quality shapes life outcomes, with two main models: heroic-visionary and technocratic, each having significant flaws.
Bootstrapping
fromBusiness Matters
2 weeks ago

How Capital Scaling Models Support Trader Development

A well-designed learning environment with capital scaling enhances trader development and confidence, leading to better decision-making and performance.
Business
fromFortune
6 days ago

One AI bubble has already burst. The next one-a 'rare' kind-is still growing, economist warns | Fortune

The AI stock bubble has burst, with inflated valuations now decreasing, reflecting a significant shift in the tech sector's financial landscape.
Washington DC
fromwww.npr.org
2 weeks ago

Opinion: Lessons from a bad weather forecast

Meteorologists overestimated a storm's severity in Washington, D.C., leading to widespread panic and preparations that ultimately proved unnecessary.
#prediction-markets
fromFortune
2 weeks ago
Cryptocurrency

Betting on 5-minute swings on Bitcoin price are the hot new thing on prediction markets | Fortune

Law
fromFast Company
2 weeks ago

Traders flocked to prediction markets-now a criminal case is testing the model

Arizona filed criminal charges against Kalshi, a prediction market platform, for operating an illegal gambling business and allowing bets on political races, despite the platform being federally legal as a financial trading platform.
US politics
fromwww.npr.org
3 weeks ago

With boom in prediction markets, some lawmakers worry about how to police themselves

Prediction market bets on geopolitical events lack regulatory oversight, enabling potential insider trading by government officials without financial disclosure requirements.
Cryptocurrency
fromFortune
2 weeks ago

Betting on 5-minute swings on Bitcoin price are the hot new thing on prediction markets | Fortune

Prediction markets now offer ultra-short-term Bitcoin price bets lasting five to fifteen minutes, generating massive trading volumes and attracting mainstream betting activity.
World news
fromwww.cbc.ca
1 month ago

Prediction markets face heightened scrutiny over Iran-related bets | CBC News

Prediction market bets on Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei's ouster raised concerns about insider trading, with $150 million wagered and suspicious trading patterns before military strikes.
Poker
fromWIRED
2 weeks ago

'A Rigged and Dangerous Product': The Wildest Week for Prediction Markets Yet

Kalshi raised $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation amid regulatory challenges in the prediction market industry.
#day-trading
Artificial intelligence
fromEntrepreneur
2 weeks ago

Why 97% of Traders Lose Money - But AI Is Changing That

Only 3% of day traders make money; AI tools now enable traders to operate systematically without emotional bias, potentially improving success rates.
fromEntrepreneur
3 weeks ago
Business

How to Ride Stocks That Are Already Moving - and Make Money Doing It

Day traders succeed by analyzing price momentum and trader behavior patterns rather than company fundamentals, focusing on how stocks move and what other traders think about that movement.
Artificial intelligence
fromEntrepreneur
2 weeks ago

Why 97% of Traders Lose Money - But AI Is Changing That

Only 3% of day traders make money; AI tools now enable traders to operate systematically without emotional bias, potentially improving success rates.
Business
fromEntrepreneur
3 weeks ago

How to Ride Stocks That Are Already Moving - and Make Money Doing It

Day traders succeed by analyzing price momentum and trader behavior patterns rather than company fundamentals, focusing on how stocks move and what other traders think about that movement.
#investing
Retirement
from24/7 Wall St.
1 week ago

Why Experts Say to Stop Checking Your 401(k) Balance Right Now

Frequent portfolio checking can lead to poor investment decisions due to myopic loss aversion, resulting in significant performance gaps compared to market returns.
Business
fromThe Motley Fool
1 week ago

2 Safe Stocks to Buy in Times of Uncertainty | The Motley Fool

Investing in reliable companies like Walmart and Alphabet can provide stability during economic uncertainty.
fromWIRED
3 weeks ago

You Can Approximate Pi by Dropping Needles on the Floor

Pi is an infinitely long decimal number that never repeats. How do we know? Well, humans have calculated it to 314 trillion decimal places and didn't reach the end. At that point, I'm inclined to accept it. I mean, NASA uses only the first 15 decimal places for navigating spacecraft, and that's more than enough for earthly applications.
OMG science
from24/7 Wall St.
2 weeks ago

Nebius Is a HighRisk Swing-But Could the Payoff Justify the Volatility?

Nebius Group's stock has been volatile, with a potential double-top pattern emerging. The company is raising $4 billion, raising concerns about shareholder dilution amidst significant AI investments.
Artificial intelligence
#risk-taking
Books
fromThe Atlantic
3 weeks ago

The Art of Taking Smart Risks

Intelligent risk-taking involves distinguishing between reckless behavior and brave action, with society facing pressure from industries profiting off compulsive gambling rather than meaningful risk-taking.
Books
fromThe Atlantic
3 weeks ago

The Art of Taking Smart Risks

Intelligent risk-taking involves distinguishing between reckless behavior and brave action, with society facing pressure from industries profiting off compulsive gambling rather than meaningful risk-taking.
from24/7 Wall St.
2 weeks ago

Moody's Puts Odds Of Recession At 50/50

behind the recent jump are primarily the weak labour market numbers, but almost all the economic data has turned soft since the end of last year. Total nonfarm payroll employment edged down by 92,000 in February, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.4 percent.
US Elections
fromwww.scientificamerican.com
3 weeks ago

Find pi today just by flipping coins

Sometimes the reason pi shows up in randomly generated values is obvious—if there are circles or angles involved, pi is your guy. But sometimes the circle is cleverly hidden, and sometimes the reason pi pops up is a mathematical mystery!
Science
Business
from24/7 Wall St.
1 week ago

VFVA's Deep Value Strategy Carries a Hidden Volatility Risk Most Investors Overlook

Vanguard U.S. Value Factor ETF targets undervalued stocks, offering cost-efficient exposure with potential for high returns, but carries significant risks during market downturns.
Tech industry
from24/7 Wall St.
3 weeks ago

The Stock Is Up 11% This Week and Reddit Is Bullish but the Math Is Uncomfortable

Cloudflare surged 12.7% after Q4 2025 earnings with strong revenue growth and AI positioning, but widening GAAP losses and a 169x forward P/E raise valuation concerns.
#market-correction
Business
from24/7 Wall St.
1 week ago

Goldman Sachs Sees Correction Risks Rising. Here's How to Prepare for a Storm

Goldman Sachs warns of increasing risks for a market correction, with the S&P 500 down nearly 7% from its high.
Artificial intelligence
fromwww.scientificamerican.com
2 weeks ago

As AI keeps improving, mathematicians struggle to foretell their own future

First Proof, a benchmarking initiative, is launching its second round to evaluate large language models' ability to contribute to research-level mathematics, now requiring transparency and access from participating AI companies.
Miscellaneous
fromBusiness Matters
1 month ago

Programmatic Risk Management for Derivative Trading

Leverage in derivatives requires real-time programmatic risk controls embedded in trading architecture to prevent rapid account depletion from market moves.
Real estate
fromwww.housingwire.com
1 month ago

When timing the dip goes wrong: The cost of staying on the sidelines

Waiting for perfect housing market conditions creates hidden costs through accumulated rent and missed appreciation that often exceed potential savings from lower prices or rates.
from24/7 Wall St.
3 weeks ago

When Fear Spikes, These 5 Quiet, Overlooked Stocks Keep Delivering

When fear spikes, most investors flee to gold or Treasuries. But five quietly resilient stocks have been doing the work all along, and most investors aren't paying attention. The ranking below weighs dividend stability, earnings consistency, balance sheet strength, and cash flow predictability in a turbulent environment.
Business intelligence
US news
fromFortune
1 month ago

U.S. stocks are being battered by 'AI derangement syndrome' and CEOs are learning not to talk about it | Fortune

U.S. equities underperform globally due to investor skepticism toward AI-linked stocks, with the S&P 500 up only 0.93% year-to-date while foreign markets surge significantly higher.
Business
fromFortune
2 weeks ago

Scott Bessent just defined market panic-and accidentally diagnosed the biggest problem with AI | Fortune

True market risk emerges when price discovery breaks down and buyers and sellers cannot reliably determine asset values, not from volatility itself.
fromEntrepreneur
1 month ago

How to Evaluate a Business Opportunity Without Letting Passion Blind You

Passion can work for or against you in a business model. Your goal? Make it work for you. First, I think we tend to categorize individuals with passion into the enigmatic genius entrepreneur who hits it big or takes the leap with the smallest of chances for success, only to watch them absolutely crush it.
Startup companies
Retirement
from24/7 Wall St.
1 month ago

Worried About a Stock Market Crash? 6 Savvy Moves For Investors to Do Now

Market veterans recognize current conditions resemble previous crash periods, with potential downside risks from inflation, geopolitical tensions, national debt, and AI bubble concerns despite near all-time highs.
fromwww.mediaite.com
1 month ago

Conservative Economist Scores Big After Betting Almost $350,000 DOGE Would Fail

Alan Cole, senior economist at the Tax Foundation, took that bet, telling WSJ reporter Richard Rubin how and why he dropped $342,195.63 into a prediction-market wager on the Kalshi platform. Cole said that he looked at the terms of the Kalshi wager and saw an opportunity, because he did not believe anything Musk would do would significantly curtail spending on interest on the national debt or entitlements like Social Security and Medicare, especially as America's population continued to age.
US politics
Philosophy
fromPsychology Today
1 month ago

Why Expert Predictions So Often Fail

True expertise is judgment under constraints, focused on diagnosing present problems and weighing tradeoffs, not predicting uncertain futures.
from24/7 Wall St.
1 month ago

The Silent Risk of Over Diversification in Retirement Portfolios

While over-diversification is not a term you hear often, the financial industry has spent decades telling investors that more is better. More funds, more sectors, more geographic exposure, and more asset classes, galore. The thing is, when a retiree holds 15 or 20 ETFs across overlapping strategies, the result isn't going to be safety, more like dilution.
Retirement
Artificial intelligence
fromWIRED
1 month ago

Wall Street Has AI Psychosis

A blog post predicting AI-driven unemployment and market collapse in 2028 triggered significant stock market volatility, reflecting widespread anxiety about artificial intelligence's economic impact despite containing no novel predictions.
fromEntrepreneur
1 month ago

This Common Invisible Barrier Is Sabotaging Your Data-Driven Decisions

AI was everywhere, but I wasn't focused on product launches. I was looking at how companies think about data itself: how it's shared, governed and ultimately turned into decisions. And across conversations with executives and sessions on security and compliance, a pattern emerged: the technical limitations that once justified locking data down have largely been solved. What remains difficult is human. Alignment, trust and confidence inside organizations are now the true barriers.
Data science
from24/7 Wall St.
1 month ago

3 Reasons Not to Fear a Market Correction, But Cheer for One

Over time, markets get ahead of themselves. Excitement over AI, green energy, or whatever the next big thing is tends to push stock valuations far beyond what fundamentals justify. Accordingly, more often than not, a correction can be the catalyst that brings valuation discipline back into the discussion. Think of it as the market taking a deep breath.
Business intelligence
fromBusiness Insider
1 month ago

'Big Short' Michael Burry warns Nvidia is taking on risk that could be 'catastrophic'

To be clear, NVDA has been forced to place non-cancellable purchase orders well before demand is known. This new reality reflects a deliberate decision to lock up supply chain capacity further than Nvidia has ever done before. Nvidia's $117 billion in total supply obligations nearly matched its operating cash flow for the year ended January 25. This is not business as usual. This is risk.
Artificial intelligence
Venture
fromTNW | Investors-Funding
1 month ago

How the uninvestable is becoming investable

Venture capital is increasingly funding complex 'hard' sectors—government, defence, energy, manufacturing, and hardware—driven by rising public spending and AI-enabled adoption cycles.
UX design
fromMedium
2 months ago

The safest decision is rarely the right one

Data often becomes a safe substitute for judgment, enabling teams to avoid accountability and favor incremental, low-risk product choices over bolder, unproven innovations.
Science
fromFlowingData
2 months ago

Your interpretation of uncertainty language compared

Verbal probability expressions can be mapped to percentage values between 0% (impossible) and 100% (definite) to quantify uncertainty.
Venture
fromEntrepreneur
2 months ago

Fear and Uncertainty Stopped Me From Investing - Here's the Simple Framework I Used to Never Hesitate Again

Act when roughly 70% confident rather than waiting for perfect certainty, because early-stage opportunities are lost to hesitation and over-analysis.
Marketing
fromwww.morningstar.com
2 months ago

AI Fears About This Stock Are Overblown

Omnicom's core business centers on omnichannel marketing planning and data assets, positioning it to outperform peers despite AI-driven creative pricing pressure.
Mindfulness
fromPsychology Today
1 month ago

Securing the Sweet Spot for Effective Decision-Making

Missing crucial information in communication shapes outcomes; improving attention, metacognition, and deliberate pauses reduces errors and strengthens cooperation with smarter tools.
Information security
fromSecuritymagazine
1 month ago

Product Spotlight on Analytics

Taelor Sutherland is Associate Editor at Security magazine covering enterprise security, coordinating digital content, and holding a BA in English Literature from Agnes Scott College.
Data science
fromBusiness Insider
2 months ago

Economic data is getting harder to come by, and the alternative won't help everyone

Erosion of BLS economic data undermines public data reliability and will widen information gaps as costly alternative data favors wealthy investors.
Marketing tech
fromwww.fool.com
2 months ago

This Growth Stock Has Been Absolutely Crushed. But Is It Finally Time to Buy?

The Trade Desk's stock has plunged roughly 74% while revenue and earnings grow at double-digit rates with high customer retention and increasing AI-driven ad spend.
fromBusiness Insider
1 month ago

'Black Swan' fund chief Mark Spitznagel predicts stocks will explode higher then crash

"I've been looking for a blow-off in equities for over three years now - followed by the worst crash since 1929," Mark Spitznagel, the founder and chief investor of Universa Investments, told Business Insider in a recent email.
Venture
fromwww.scientificamerican.com
2 months ago

How math can reveal lottery fraud

On October 1, 2022, something strange happened in the Philippines: 433 people won the jackpot in the local lottery. For this particular lotto, six numbers ranging in value from 1 to 55 were randomly selected, and the 433 winners all matched. Even more bizarre, when arranged in ascending order, the winning numbers were: 9, 18, 27, 36, 45 and 54. In other words, the winning numbers were multiples of 9 (9 1, 9 2, 9 3, etcetera).
Science
Artificial intelligence
fromAxios
1 month ago

The AI trade is swallowing the market

Hyperscalers may spend hundreds of billions on AI this year, concentrating capital and risk, with monetization shortfalls threatening Big Tech valuations and markets.
Philosophy
fromVaughntan
2 months ago

Judgment from the ground up - Vaughn Tan

Organizations must train junior staff in critical thinking and subjective decisionmaking through low-stakes, real decisions to avoid bottlenecks and succession crises.
Business
fromFast Company
1 month ago

How to prepare for a market crash

Inventory retirement accounts, assess exposure to rising consumer costs and AI-driven volatility, and prepare financial defenses to withstand a possible market correction.
#ai-disruption
Business
from24/7 Wall St.
1 month ago

3 Tips You Need To Know If Market Slides

Investors should reduce broad technology exposure, favor healthcare and utilities, and implement risk controls such as stop losses, hedging, and predetermined sell triggers.
Artificial intelligence
fromBusiness Insider
2 months ago

Why Wall Street's most data-obsessed investors are taking it slowly with generative AI

Most quant investors do not use generative AI due to data formatting requirements, need for explainable, repeatable models, and concerns about generating alpha.
Artificial intelligence
fromFuturism
2 months ago

Asset Manager Warns That OpenAI Is Likely Headed for Financial Disaster

OpenAI faces massive spending with uncertain revenue, burning billions while scaling costly AI infrastructure, raising skepticism about sustainability and promised AI outcomes.
Business
fromComputerworld
2 months ago

'A wild future': How economists are handling AI uncertainty in forecasts

AI will raise productivity and economic activity but introduces deep uncertainty in estimating labor impacts, capital spending effects, and long-term GDP projections.
Artificial intelligence
from24/7 Wall St.
2 months ago

Feels Like Markets Have Forgotten About Michael Burry's Stark Warning

Hyperscalers may be overestimating AI GPU useful life, risking significant future depreciation charges if GPUs' useful lives are shorter than reported.
Business
from24/7 Wall St.
1 month ago

Momentum Strategy Delivered 506% Returns but Now There Are Warning Signs

XMMO isolates the top 20% S&P MidCap 400 momentum performers to provide concentrated mid-cap momentum exposure with a 0.35% expense ratio and $5.2B AUM.
Business
from24/7 Wall St.
1 month ago

Grade My Speculative Portfolio: My 3 Top Picks - What Do You Think?

Long-term investing relies on patience and time horizon, while speculative positions can be entertaining and offer high upside but carry high risk.
#ai-investing
fromNature
2 months ago

Getting to the (square) root of stock-market swings

A huge data set has confirmed a long-theorized relationship between the size of stock trades and the impact on prices. Buying large numbers of shares in a company would be expected to drive the price up for other investors, because such purchases imply a commodity in demand. Researchers have now gained their best handle so far on how much.
Business
Artificial intelligence
fromEntrepreneur
1 month ago

The Quiet AI Threat Can Damage Your Company Without Warning

Corrupted training data undermines AI effectiveness, causing poor decisions, wasted resources, loss of trust, and erosion of competitive advantage.
fromFortune
2 months ago

As risk skyrockets, current and former CFOs are in demand for audit committees | Fortune

As audit committees confront a rapidly expanding risk landscape, their role in corporate governance is being reshaped. Boards have often turned to current and former CFOs as independent directors, particularly for audit committees, because of their ability to translate complex operational and financial realities into effective oversight.For example, this month, J. Michael Hansen, former EVP and CFO of Cintas Corporation, was appointed to the audit committee at Paychex.
Business
Business
from24/7 Wall St.
2 months ago

Cramer Reminds Panicked Investors: "Stocks Don't Go Down Because People Are in a Bad Mood"

Overnight futures often reflect weekend fears, while actual intraday market moves are driven by fundamentals and earnings, not investor mood.
Business
fromFortune
2 months ago

The 'smart money' isn't acting like we're in a bubble, top economist says. The AI ballgame is in its 'early innings' | Fortune

U.S. market shows frothy valuations but lacks typical bubble indicator: smart-money exit via equity issuance; corporations are reducing equity sales.
Business
from24/7 Wall St.
2 months ago

A $2 Million Portfolio Still Has a Safety Trap Most Investors Miss

A $2 million portfolio can fail retirees if after-tax withdrawals and conservative returns do not keep pace with inflation and rising healthcare and living costs.
Business
from24/7 Wall St.
2 months ago

Michael Burry May Have Called 35 Of the Past 5 Recessions, But This Is Why He's Probably Right About This One

Michael Burry warns of overvaluation and potential market bubbles; past prescience and limited policy tools raise recession risk.
Business
fromFortune
2 months ago

Why Strategy bought another $2 billion in Bitcoin despite a slumping crypto market | Fortune

Strategy purchased over $2 billion of Bitcoin during a market dip and now holds more than 709,000 BTC, about 3% of total supply.
[ Load more ]