#western-snowpack

#western-snowpack

The Springs fire in Riverside county has grown to 3,500 acres, prompting local authorities to issue several evacuation orders. The fire is concentrated in an area mostly north and east of Lake Perris, burning portions of the surrounding state recreation area.

The fire was reported in the 15900 block of Gilman Springs Road in Riverside County, just before 11 a.m. Gusty Santa Ana winds were forecast for much of Southern California on Friday.

"We're always glad to welcome winter back, and this latest round of snow has ensured there are still great turns to be had as our spring season continues. Late season powder days are a bonus, and with the spring events and deals we have planned, it's not too late to get up here for some great skiing and riding!" - Mike Pierce, Marketing Director, Mt. Rose Ski Tahoe

The powerful March storms that drenched Hawaii produced more than 2 trillion gallons of rain and pushed precipitation levels to as much as 3,000% above normal in a 14-day period for this time of year.

SWE is the most important metric for all of our water resources. It's the metric that we deal with the most and the one that the entirety of the snow research and operations community is working to get right. So, seeing an increase in SWE like that, even if it's from mid-winter rain, is a great thing because that means we have more water stored in the snowpack moving forward.

Showers moving into the region from the Central Coast should bring steady rain to Ventura and Los Angeles counties Thursday morning, with frosty temperatures pushing snow levels lower than normal, potentially impacting commuters along the Grapevine, according to the National Weather Service. "Steady precipitation will taper off to showers by late this afternoon and become confined to the mountains by late tonight," the weather service posted in a Thursday morning forecast.

To get back to average snowpack, we essentially need to have the most snow that we've ever had for the last 30 years between now and mid-April. It would be extremely difficult for Colorado to get back to a normal/average snowpack. As an example, when looking at the Independence Pass SNOTEL site in central Colorado outside of Aspen, we typically have 13 inches of snow-water-equivalent at the end of February. This year, we only have 6.7 inches of SWE.

"A dry January, which is historically the wettest month of the year in California, has now eroded the gains made at the start of the year and forecasts currently show no major precipitation in the next two weeks," California Department of Weather Resources spokesperson Jason Ince wrote in a Jan. 30 news release. The first month of the year certainly left the area warmer and drier than usual, weather officials confirmed.

After experiencing one of the wettest holiday seasons on record, still soggy California hit a major milestone this week - having zero areas of abnormal dryness for the first time in 25 years. This data, collected by the U.S. Drought Monitor, is a welcome nugget of news for Golden State residents, who in the last 15 years alone have lived through two of the worst droughts on record, the worst wildfire seasons on record and the most destructive wildfires ever.

Confidence is highest through Saturday because the individual models agree well on the timing of the Thursday storm and the following break. Southern California's mountains pick up a quick shot of snow on Thursday with strong winds, then dry out into the weekend. Beyond the weekend, the signal stays active, but model spread grows fast on storm timing, snow levels, and wind impacts, so expect meaningful swings from run to run.

Sun night (02/15) through Tue night (02/17) is the core punch, and many Sierra mountains can stack 20″-50″ in that window as snow levels crash. Expect a lighter start Sunday night, then snowfall rates ramp up hard Monday night into Tuesday with widespread coverage across Tahoe, the central Sierra, and down into Mammoth. Snow levels begin around 5,000 to 5,500 feet early, then fall into the 1,500 to 2,500-foot range by Tuesday and Tuesday night, which helps keep even lower terrain in play for all-snow.

Two waves drive the bulk of the snow, with a relatively higher snow level and denser snow early, followed by a colder surge that improves powder quality and brings the strongest winds. Expect long stretches of snowfall for the Sierra with only brief lulls, plus periods of wind-driven, low-visibility skiing on upper mountain. Southern California gets meaningful mountain snow as well, but snow levels are a bigger deal there and the best accumulation favors higher terrain.