#economic-policy-institute

#economic-policy-institute

The proposed rule establishes broad principles to guide the determination of whether state-level stablecoin regulatory regimes are 'substantially similar' to the federal framework, allowing smaller issuers to remain under state supervision.

Kalshi's ads emphasize that it bans insider trading and does not engage in death bets, aiming to reassure observers about the integrity of its market operations.

"It's a brutal job market. To see that 3.1% hiring rate, the lowest since April 2020, underscores how little hiring is going on."

High energy prices are kryptonite for the housing market. Affordability, especially for those first-time home buyers, is now an elusive dream until oil prices come down and interest rates come down.

The White House is seeking a 10 percent cut to nondefense spending, proposing a reduction of $73 billion from federal programs outside the military, targeting environmental initiatives.

September, or more likely October, is now the realistic opportunity for a rate cut, and even that is far from guaranteed. The data coming through is not consistent with easing in July. In fact, it points in the opposite direction. Inflation is not falling fast enough. The latest wholesale inflation data shows prices rising at 3.4% year-on-year, the strongest pace in a year, and core measures are still running close to 4%.

"There seems to be a growing consensus that the status quo is unsustainable," said Rep. Ritchie Torres, a New York Democrat who was an early entrant into Congress' prediction market debate.

The country is almost certain to enter the next shock more indebted than we have ever been before, which may significantly hamper our ability to marshal an appropriate response. The U.S. has never experienced an economic shock as indebted as we are today. This situation leaves the U.S. immensely vulnerable.

Even though confidence is seeping out of the US economy, employers are taking a glass‑half‑full approach and have taken on more staff than expected. While there could be anomalies in this delayed data release, given the chaos of the partial government shutdown, it does indicate that the US economy is continuing to show resilience. This has helped propel the internationally focused FTSE 100 higher in afternoon trade, as prospects for the world's largest economy appear more upbeat.

Employers added a healthy 130,000 jobs in January, the Labor Department said this week, as the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%. The caveat? That announcement came with revisions that showed job creation flatlined over the last year, with only 15,000 jobs being added per month on average. Service sectors like finance and professional services that normally power the creation of high-paying office positions have instead been shedding jobs, perhaps reflecting employers' anticipation of AI-related cost savings.

The report argues that these figures exceed the CFPB's reported figure of $21 billion returned to consumers through enforcement actions. Through a combination of regulation, supervision and the persistent threat of enforcement, the CFPB has increased the cost of credit for both lenders and borrowers, the report states. Moreover, instances of regulatory overreach and actions that bypass the Administrative Procedure Act introduce additional costs and uncertainty into credit markets that can further push lenders to retreat or limit offerings.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office's 10-year outlook projects worsening long-term federal deficits and rising debt, driven largely by increased spending, notably on Social Security, Medicare, and debt service payments. Compared with the CBO's analysis this time last year, the fiscal outlook has deteriorated modestly. Major developments over the last year are factored into the latest report, released Wednesday, including Republicans' tax and spending measure known as the " One Big Beautiful Bill Act,"

Economist Claudia Sahm is an expert (if not the expert) on the conditions that presage a recession and how policymakers should react as a result. She is the creator of "the Sahm Rule," an employment indicator monitored by everyone from central banks to the global financial giants. The Sahm Rule says that a recession is likely when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by 0.5 percentage points or more, relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous year.

By launching a legal assault on the Fed, Mr Trump is trying to shift blame for borrowing costs. Yet despite controlling the presidency, Senate and the House, Republicans have passed little beyond a large tax-cutting bill that benefits the rich. They have not legislated on housing supply, childcare, healthcare costs or wages. Indeed most of their actions are worsening affordability, notably deferring action even though millions face a sharp rise in their health insurance bills.

The newly-named Federal Reserve chairman faces an historic challenge that no predecessor has encountered since the years immediately following World War II. In that period, the gigantic spending required to aid our allies and secure military victory saddled the U.S. with towering debt. President Truman-fearing that huge interest costs would swamp the budget-heavily pressured the Fed to hold down rates. Today, the U.S. is wrestling with its biggest budget crisis in 70 years, and we're confronting a similar conundrum.

Not only is this America's 250th year, but it is a year when competing visions for America's economic future are coming to a head,