#inflation-vs-nominal

#inflation-vs-nominal

Employers added 178,000 jobs last month, much more than forecasters had expected, reversing big job losses in February and indicating a rebound in the labor market.

High energy prices are kryptonite for the housing market. Affordability, especially for those first-time home buyers, is now an elusive dream until oil prices come down and interest rates come down.

'Walmart Worries' just keep multiplying. It's currently close to the highest level ever recorded which was during the Great Financial Crisis of 2008-09.

"Jobs may be a bit modest when we look out over the last couple of years, but pay is telling a different story - that there is still a little bit of tightness in this labor market," ADP chief economist Nela Richardson told reporters Wednesday morning.

Escalating geopolitical risk continued to dominate global markets' concerns, with safe-haven demand keeping the dollar index anchored near a multi-week high.

"Oil prices are higher again this morning, but Treasury yields are lower as the risks to economic growth begin to take precedence over the risks to inflation," Oxford Economics said in a note on Monday.

On a monthly basis, the Consumer Price Index was up 0.3% after seasonal adjustment in December. Year-over-year the all-items index was up 2.7%, the same as it was in November. Shelter was the main contributor to the all-items index's monthly increase, rising 0.4% from a month prior. Other major contributors included the food index, which rose 0.7% and the energy index, which jumped 0.3%.

The resilience of gold above $4,800 per ounce at this stage reflects a delicate and complex balance between traditional supporting factors and emerging pressures-one that cannot be superficially interpreted or reduced to the movement of the dollar alone. It is true that the U.S. dollar's retreat from its recent peaks, after failing to sustain its recovery momentum from a four-year low, provided gold with a short-term breather and attracted some buyers.

Employers added a healthy 130,000 jobs in January, the Labor Department said this week, as the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%. The caveat? That announcement came with revisions that showed job creation flatlined over the last year, with only 15,000 jobs being added per month on average. Service sectors like finance and professional services that normally power the creation of high-paying office positions have instead been shedding jobs, perhaps reflecting employers' anticipation of AI-related cost savings.

Gold has been on a tear as the dollar is under pressure, raising questions about global confidence and market risk. The US economy and markets are unmatched in size. The dollar is the king of currencies, and US treasuries are often considered a safe-haven asset. But, investors appear to be reassessing that. This has weighed down on the greenback and cooled the stock markets.