#nassim-nicholas-taleb

#nassim-nicholas-taleb

I can't offer reassurance or tell you that you shouldn't feel under threat, but I can try to give you tools to meet the moment and help you understand that your most durable skills are cognitive, not technical. We'll cover five reflective practices you can use to become a sharper, more nimble, and more astute thinker in any external environment.

This is a tough time for politics in America. But it's an extremely interesting time for those of us who wrestle with the nature of reality. As a psychiatrist who has treated people with psychosis for over 20 years, I have lived in the uncomfortable space between their experience of reality and mine and I have worked to change beliefs that are some of the most resistant to change: delusions.

When fear dominates, nuance and exceptions fade. Over time, this dynamic creates insular echo chambers that amplify threat narratives while filtering out contradictory evidence. What is particularly striking, and deeply concerning, is that this climate of dread is no longer confined to one group. It is now mirrored across political divides, leaving many people-regardless of affiliation-feeling powerless, overwhelmed, and chronically anxious.

It's become almost a cliché to talk about how consistently organizational change fails. Study after study finds that roughly three-quarters of change efforts don't achieve their objectives. There are underlying forces that work against us adapting to change-including synaptic, network and cost effects-that lead to resistance. Another problem lies in how we study change itself. Typically, researchers at an academic institution or a consulting firm interview executives that were involved in successful efforts and try to glean insights to write case studies.

The founder of one of our portfolio companies created a company with approximately $200 million in revenue purely on instinct. The founder had spent a large amount of time around the products and relationships with customers, so that he could literally go out onto the production floor and identify the machine that would be broken down in a week, and he would reject a price recommendation from his financial staff because "it didn't feel right!"

Minutes into teaching my business school class, I asked what seemed like an innocent question: What is one word that describes how you feel about AI right now? One word. That's it. My students looked up, looked down, looked anywhere to avoid eye contact. Silence. "I promise," I said, "this is a safe space." Something I'd repeat throughout the course-and I meant it. Then the answers came quickly, and the energy in the room shifted as they arrived. You could feel the sheen of performance

"I've been looking for a blow-off in equities for over three years now - followed by the worst crash since 1929," Mark Spitznagel, the founder and chief investor of Universa Investments, told Business Insider in a recent email.

Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham raised the alarm on an AI bubble, revealed a pandemic bet that didn't pay off, and recommended young people steer clear of Wall Street in a memoir published last month. The GMO cofounder wrote in "The Making of a Permabear: The Perils of Long-term Investing in a Short-term World," which he coauthored, that ChatGPT's release in late 2022 shored up a crumbling stock market and created a "bubble within a bubble."

The oil tycoon J. Paul Getty was rumoured to have said that his three rules for how to become rich were: Rise early. Work hard. Strike oil. It's one of those eminently quotable remarks because it captures something we all know to be true, that luck and chance have as much to do with success as anything else. Yet we don't value people for their luck.

A drawn circle is at least something physical. You can see it, touch it, erase it. The skeptic can still say, "Circles are grounded in physical reality. Justice is different; it's just an idea in your head." So let's talk about the number two. Point to it. Not two apples, not two fingers, not a numeral on a page-that's just a symbol.

We don't often call people stupid. Unlike its sibling concepts of dumbness and idiocy, stupidity isn't really a personality trait. Of course, you might think someone is stupid, but when we use the word, we tend to limit it to moments of stupidity. We say "Well, that was a stupid thing to do" or "You're being stupid." Stupidity is a blip.

When Serena Williams strode onto the Wimbledon grass, her legendary power was never in question. Her serve was crushing. Her backhand was unstoppable. But she wouldn't go to the net. She'd see a short ball, the kind that screams "approach," and she would hesitate to volley and miss the point. Serena was not playing at her full potential because of a story in her head.

They're displaying a fascinating set of personality traits that go much deeper than having their finances sorted. 1) They have exceptional impulse control Think about what it takes to always have exact change ready. You need to resist the urge to spend those coins on vending machines or leave them as tips. You have to plan ahead, knowing what you'll buy and preparing accordingly.

In January 1986, NASA engineers knew the Space Shuttle Challenger's O-rings had never been tested in freezing temperatures. They recommended delaying the launch. Managers asked: Could the engineers prove it was unsafe? They couldn't-they could only say the system hadn't been designed for these conditions. Under pressure, the engineers withdrew their recommendation. The next morning, Challenger broke apart 73 seconds after launch, killing all seven astronauts.