#oil-price-exposure

#oil-price-exposure

"Fresh food and perishables are almost like the canary in the coal mine," when energy prices go up, according to Vidya Mani, an associate professor at the University of Virginia's Darden School of Business.

We, the Ministers of Foreign Affairs of Belgium, Croatia, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Italy, Ireland, Latvia, Luxembourg, Moldova, Norway, Poland, San Marino, Spain and Sweden, concerned by the conflict in the Middle East, are appalled by the dramatic situation and renewed escalation of violence in Lebanon, where there are already 1.2 million internally displaced persons, representing some 25% of the overall population.

The war has effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important oil route, since the end of February and cut exports from OPEC+ members Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait and Iraq.

Australia's economic insulation is no longer guaranteed by geography, as geopolitical unrest in the Middle East can swiftly impact its economy through international energy markets.

Fuel price rises in March were the highest on record, adding an unprecedented 11 to the cost of filling up an average vehicle. The average cost for a litre of unleaded petrol rose by 20p in the month following America's strikes on Iran.

KeyBanc's revised oil deck reflects a materially stronger crude environment than previously modeled, with dislocations in global crude and refined products expected to persist into summer.

The market remains highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East, where elevated geopolitical tensions continue to expose energy infrastructure and shipping routes to significant risks. Supply conditions have already tightened, as production in parts of the region has been curtailed due to limited storage capacity and difficulties in exporting crude amid shipping constraints.

It may be too late for Trump to negotiate from a position of strength with Iran. The conflict has raised the risk of a worldwide recession.

The FTSE 100 once again remains a leader in Europe, although the pullback in oil and precious metals has meant that commodity stocks are lagging behind as financials take the lead. Strong gains for the likes of HSBC, Barclays, and NatWest bring a recovery from a sector that has been hit by Trump's recent move to limit credit card interest rates to 10%.