#season-stagnation

#season-stagnation

Employers added 178,000 jobs last month, much more than forecasters had expected, reversing big job losses in February and indicating a rebound in the labor market.

'Walmart Worries' just keep multiplying. It's currently close to the highest level ever recorded which was during the Great Financial Crisis of 2008-09.

"It's a brutal job market. To see that 3.1% hiring rate, the lowest since April 2020, underscores how little hiring is going on."

High energy prices are kryptonite for the housing market. Affordability, especially for those first-time home buyers, is now an elusive dream until oil prices come down and interest rates come down.

The S&P 500 closed up approximately 2.4% near 6,496, while the Nasdaq Composite gained roughly 3.3% to around 21,475, indicating a strong market response to geopolitical news.

"Oil prices are higher again this morning, but Treasury yields are lower as the risks to economic growth begin to take precedence over the risks to inflation," Oxford Economics said in a note on Monday.

Weak performance in several service sectors offset gains in retail and wholesale trade, reinforcing concerns about the pace of economic recovery. Japan relies heavily on oil imports from the Middle East, making it particularly sensitive to disruptions in the region.

Goldman Sachs now expects Brent crude to average $105 per barrel in March and $115 in April before retreating to $80 by year-end, assuming roughly six weeks of Hormuz supply disruptions.

For the 25 major episodes going back to 1950, we typically see a decline in the S&P of around 4%. Now, usually after a month, the S&P tends to recover that entire decline. Then he immediately walked it back. The playbook, he said, does not apply here.