#treasury-reserve

#treasury-reserve

Escalating geopolitical risk continued to dominate global markets' concerns, with safe-haven demand keeping the dollar index anchored near a multi-week high.

September, or more likely October, is now the realistic opportunity for a rate cut, and even that is far from guaranteed. The data coming through is not consistent with easing in July. In fact, it points in the opposite direction. Inflation is not falling fast enough. The latest wholesale inflation data shows prices rising at 3.4% year-on-year, the strongest pace in a year, and core measures are still running close to 4%.

The dominant force in play remains the Middle East conflict, which has kept oil prices elevated and inflation expectations firm. Reports that Washington is assembling a coalition to escort vessels through the Strait of Hormuz could offer some relief for the oil market and could weigh on the dollar.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The implications of developments in the Middle East for the US economy are uncertain, the central bank said in a statement announcing its policy decision and referring to its Federal Open Market Committee.

On a monthly basis, the Consumer Price Index was up 0.3% after seasonal adjustment in December. Year-over-year the all-items index was up 2.7%, the same as it was in November. Shelter was the main contributor to the all-items index's monthly increase, rising 0.4% from a month prior. Other major contributors included the food index, which rose 0.7% and the energy index, which jumped 0.3%.

The two precious metals, the most classic of the "safe-haven" assets, have the tangibility and inherent scarcity to act a hedge in moments of turmoil, particularly when investors worry that politics or policy could undermine the value of the dollar or U.S. government bonds. That is why the metals' relentless rally to record highs since late last year-Gold is up 84% year-over-year and silver up a whopping 245% - has drawn attention from analysts.