#energy-markets

#energy-markets

Australia's economic insulation is no longer guaranteed by geography, as geopolitical unrest in the Middle East can swiftly impact its economy through international energy markets.

Citi's upgrade reflects a broader geopolitical reality reshaping global energy markets. The Iran war is accelerating the flight of European and Asian buyers toward secure, long-term U.S. LNG supply contracts.

Rising inflation concerns, hawkish monetary policy signals, and escalating geopolitical tensions weighed on risk assets. Energy markets are adding to the pressure. Oil prices surged following renewed attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East, intensifying concerns about inflationary pressure.

The Iranian military's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for the U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Tehran has sent energy markets into turmoil. A quarter of the world's natural gas, a fifth of its crude oil, and tons of critical materials for fertilizers and other petroleum products pass through this strategic Persian Gulf waterway.

Elevated oil levels are reinforcing concerns that inflation could remain sticky, reducing the likelihood of near-term monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, weighing on gold in the process. ETF outflows over recent weeks reinforce this shift in sentiment, and could weigh on the market if they continue.

Weak performance in several service sectors offset gains in retail and wholesale trade, reinforcing concerns about the pace of economic recovery. Japan relies heavily on oil imports from the Middle East, making it particularly sensitive to disruptions in the region.

USDA estimates for major crops were largely unchanged from the previous month, resulting in muted market reactions. For wheat, the USDA maintained its U.S. production, supply, and ending stocks forecasts with no revisions. Global wheat production was adjusted slightly higher, largely due to increased output estimates in Ukraine and Kazakhstan, partially offset by a smaller Australian crop.

New York City drivers found themselves paying, on average, 31 cents more for a gallon of gas week-over-week, according to the American Automobile Association. The gallon price as of March 6 was $3.30, up from $2.99 on Feb. 27.

The death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, 2026, per NPR reporting, sent immediate shockwaves through energy markets. WTI crude climbed from $61.60 on February 2 to $71.13 by March 2, and prediction markets now assign 97% probability to crude reaching $75 by end of March, with 81% confidence in a move to $80.

US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran have prompted Iran's Revolutionary Guard to declare the Strait of Hormuz closed, a critical chokepoint for global energy flows, and the conflict has now spread across multiple countries. The paradox for investors: an energy shock lifting oil prices is simultaneously crushing the metals complex.