#seasonal-adjustment-volatility

#seasonal-adjustment-volatility

"It's a brutal job market. To see that 3.1% hiring rate, the lowest since April 2020, underscores how little hiring is going on."

The sharp rise in oil prices and renewed inflation concerns created significant pressure on both stocks and bonds, impacting investor sentiment and market dynamics.

'Walmart Worries' just keep multiplying. It's currently close to the highest level ever recorded which was during the Great Financial Crisis of 2008-09.

behind the recent jump are primarily the weak labour market numbers, but almost all the economic data has turned soft since the end of last year. Total nonfarm payroll employment edged down by 92,000 in February, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.4 percent.

Weak performance in several service sectors offset gains in retail and wholesale trade, reinforcing concerns about the pace of economic recovery. Japan relies heavily on oil imports from the Middle East, making it particularly sensitive to disruptions in the region.

Goldman Sachs now expects Brent crude to average $105 per barrel in March and $115 in April before retreating to $80 by year-end, assuming roughly six weeks of Hormuz supply disruptions.

Over time, markets get ahead of themselves. Excitement over AI, green energy, or whatever the next big thing is tends to push stock valuations far beyond what fundamentals justify. Accordingly, more often than not, a correction can be the catalyst that brings valuation discipline back into the discussion. Think of it as the market taking a deep breath.

For the 25 major episodes going back to 1950, we typically see a decline in the S&P of around 4%. Now, usually after a month, the S&P tends to recover that entire decline. Then he immediately walked it back. The playbook, he said, does not apply here.

The stock market hates inflation. There are not many stocks that are little affected today, if any. However, safe-haven stocks may even rise due to demand. At the top of this list is Altria (NYSE: MO), the cigarette and tobacco king. People who smoke do not stop smoking, even during periods of conflict.

In a note on Saturday, he recalled economist Robert Solow's quip from the 1980s as PCs were transforming the economy: "You can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics." The same thing can be said today about AI, Slok wrote, noting that data on employment, productivity and inflation are still not showing signs of the new technology.

U.S. financial markets ended the week on a cautious note as investors weighed strong employment data against growing concerns about the impact of artificial intelligence on traditional business models. Major stock indexes declined, led by technology-heavy shares, reflecting worries that rapid AI developments may disrupt established industries and earnings outlooks. The Nasdaq Composite recorded the steepest losses, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average also finished lower. Value-oriented stocks continued to outperform growth stocks, extending a trend that has persisted for several weeks.

A huge data set has confirmed a long-theorized relationship between the size of stock trades and the impact on prices. Buying large numbers of shares in a company would be expected to drive the price up for other investors, because such purchases imply a commodity in demand. Researchers have now gained their best handle so far on how much.

The saying that stocks take the stairs up, and the elevator down, is definitely true. There were so many near-term downturns (which now look like extremely minor blips on the radar) which must have been downright frightening at the time. But over the long-term, even the most protracted declines didn't turn out to be much more than near-term volatility, with the stock market taking the stairs higher eventually and making a new all-time high.